Political Consolidation and the Succession Machinery
While Arafi built his institutional empire far from public view, his entry into the formal political structure of the Islamic Republic was a calculated progression. In July 2019, Khamenei appointed him as a jurist member of the Guardian Council, the 12-member body responsible for reviewing all legislation and vetting candidates for public office. This appointment gave Arafi a direct hand in the state’s constitutional machinery and further signaled his status as a trusted loyalist.
Arafi’s political career was not without setbacks. In the February 2016 elections for the Assembly of Experts, he ran as a hardline candidate in Tehran but failed to secure a seat. This loss was widely interpreted as a rejection of his ultra-conservative platform by the urban electorate of the capital. However, the 2016 setback did not derail his ascent. When a vacancy arose, he entered the Assembly through a midterm by-election in 2021. By the March 2024 elections, in a “heavily curated” contest where the Guardian Council (of which Arafi was a member) disqualified hundreds of opponents, he emerged as the top vote-getter in Tehran. He was subsequently elected as the Second Deputy Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, placing him in the core of the state’s succession planning apparatus.
| Political Body | Role | Year of Entry |
| Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution | Permanent Member | 2011 |
| Guardian Council | Jurist Member | 2019 |
| Assembly of Experts | Member (Tehran Constituency) | 2021 |
| Assembly of Experts | Second Deputy Chairman | 2024 |
| Interim Leadership Council | Jurist Member | March 2026 |
Foreign Policy and the Moscow-Tehran Axis
Arafi’s foreign policy orientation is defined by a deep-seated hostility to Western liberalism and a strategic desire to strengthen ties with “Eastern” powers. He identifies the primary enemy of the Islamic Republic as the alliance between the “Global Arrogance” (the United States and Israel) and the “Takfiri” version of Islam (Wahhabism) promoted by Saudi Arabia.
In July 2024, Arafi conducted a highly unusual diplomatic mission to Moscow that was interpreted by regional analysts as an unofficial “audition” for higher office. Traveling at the invitation of the head of the religious administration of Russian Muslims, Arafi met with several senior Russian officials, including the First Deputy Speaker of the State Duma. During the visit, he emphasized the “historical position” and “best condition” of Iran-Russia relations, stating that the determinations of the leaders of both countries were based on “extensive cooperation”. This trip, unconventional for a seminary leader, reflected his belief in the necessity of a Russo-Iranian alliance to resist Western philosophical and political hegemony.
The Ideological Enforcer: The 2022 Protests and Sanctions
Arafi is a staunch defender of the Islamic Republic’s authoritarian structure, which he views as the only legitimate framework for Iranian society. He has been a vocal opponent of domestic dissent, famously dismissing the 2009 Green Movement as a “sedition” and crediting Khamenei’s firm leadership for preventing the state’s collapse.
During the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini, Arafi emerged as one of the regime’s most aggressive rhetorical enforcers. Speaking to a gathering of clerics in Qom as the unrest spread, he issued a chilling warning to those who targeted the clergy: “Those who attack the turbans of the clergy should know that the turban will become their shroud”. This statement, widely interpreted as an incitement to state violence against protesters, led to his being sanctioned by the Canadian government in October 2022 for human rights abuses. As a member of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, he has also been a key architect of the regime’s efforts to intensify the enforcement of mandatory hijab laws.
Bibliography and Intellectual Framework
Arafi is a prolific author, having published more than 24 books and numerous articles on Islamic jurisprudence, philosophy, and education. His work is not merely academic; it provides the theoretical justification for the regime’s social and behavioral engineering.
| Title (English Translation) | Language | Year | Impact/Recognition |
| Views of Muslim Scholars on Education and its Foundations | Persian | 1999 | Recognized as “Top Book of Seminaries” |
| Child Rearing: The Educational Biography of the Prophet and the Ahlul-Bayt | Persian | 2002 | Selected in the 3rd Congress of Religion Scholars |
| Views of Muslim Scholars on Education: Imam Mohammad | Persian | 2004 | 1st Rank in the 21st Book of the Year (Iran) |
| Educational Jurisprudence (Volumes 1 and 2) | Persian | N/A | Winner of Selected Religious Research of the Year |
| Witnesses of Deeds on the Day of Resurrection | Persian | N/A | Scholarly work on Islamic eschatology |
His intellectual project is centered on the concept of “Educational Jurisprudence,” which seeks to provide a legal framework for a state-run education system that produces citizens who are both technologically competent and ideologically compliant. In Arafi’s worldview, there is no separation between the state’s educational mission and its religious legitimacy; the school is simply an extension of the mosque, and both are instruments of the Supreme Leader.
The Assassination of Khamenei and the 2026 Transition
The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, in a massive airstrike on his leadership compound in Tehran, represents the most significant “black swan” event in the history of the theocracy. Khamenei had ruled for 37 years, consolidating ultimate authority over every branch of the state and military. His sudden removal, accompanied by the reported killing of other senior figures such as IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour and security advisor Ali Shamkhani, left the regime in a state of unprecedented vulnerability.
In response to this decapitation strike, the regime moved swiftly to activate Article 111 of the Constitution. This article mandates the formation of a temporary leadership council to fulfill the duties of the Supreme Leader until the Assembly of Experts can elect a permanent successor. The selection of Alireza Arafi as the jurist member of this council is the definitive indicator of his status as the primary architect of the transition.
As the only cleric on the council—serving with the technocrat Pezeshkian and the security-minded Mohseni-Ejei—Arafi has effectively become the “first among equals” in the interim leadership. In a regime where the Supreme Leader must be a high-ranking cleric capable of interpreting divine law, Arafi provides the necessary religious legitimacy to keep the state’s institutions operational during wartime. His appointment signals that the regime’s inner circle has prioritized institutional continuity over the more volatile option of an immediate, permanent appointment.
Conclusion: The Final Prize
Alireza Arafi stands at the intersection of traditional religious authority and modern bureaucratic power. He is a man who was meticulously built by Ali Khamenei to be a “foot soldier” for the revolution, only to find himself as its ultimate guardian in its most perilous moment. As the Interim Leadership Council navigates a state of war with the United States and Israel, Arafi’s extensive institutional portfolio—overseeing the seminaries, the Guardian Council, and the international clerical network—makes him the most powerful individual in Tehran.
His potential for permanent succession is now the central question of Iranian politics. While contenders like Mojtaba Khamenei possess familial ties and IRGC support, Arafi offers the regime the safest path forward: a leader who is institutionally dominant, ideologically rigid, and capable of projecting an image of modernization through technology. As the Assembly of Experts deliberates behind closed doors in a Tehran under siege, the biography of Alireza Arafi suggests that the “Architect of the Future Leadership” may have finally reached the ultimate prize. The vision he once drafted in the research centers of Qom—of a “New Islamic Civilization” resilient enough to survive even the loss of its founder—is now being tested by the fire of war and the pressures of history.
Official Resources
- U.S. Department of State – Iran Briefing
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
- United Nations Security Council
Disclaimer
This report contains analysis of active military and political developments. Information is based on confirmed reports from the U.S. administration and international monitoring bodies.
